“What matters is the message this sends out to potential fossil fuel investors,” Climate Home News reporter Joe Lo wrote on social media. “In the previous text, you couldn’t say that governments had agreed to transition away from fossil fuels. Now I think you can.”
“It is an enhanced, balanced—but make no mistake—historic package to accelerate climate action,” COP28 President Sultan Al Jaber said after delegates accepted the deal.
“We didn’t turn the page on the fossil fuel era, but this outcome is the beginning of the end,” said UN climate secretary Simon Stiell.
“We needed a global green light signalling it is all systems go on renewables, climate justice, and resilience. On this front, COP28 delivered some genuine strides forward,” Stiell added. “There will be reams of analysis of all the initiatives announced here in Dubai. They are a climate action lifeline, not a finish line. Now all governments and businesses need to turn these pledges into real-economy outcomes, without delay.”
But in the closing moments of the COP, the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) warned that major concessions in the final text would impede action in a crucial decade for climate action. While the final text “is an improvement and does indeed reflect a number of submissions made by small island developing states,” it “sputters in significant areas” and keeps the door open to expand fossil fuel production. With “a litany of loopholes,” AOSIS added, the final COP decision “is incremental and not transformational.”
‘First nail in the coffin’ for fossil fuels
COP observers pointed to a breakthrough moment in the history of international climate negotiations, while remaining clear-eyed about the hard work ahead.
“For the first time, the move away from fossil fuels is explicitly stated in a COP outcome—a first nail in the coffin for the fossil fuel industry,” said COP veteran Bill Hare of Climate Analytics. While “oil and gas producers squeezed in unhelpful language, pretending gas can be a transition fuel, or that carbon capture can clean up after them,” he said, “these small battle wins for the industry are bitter and hollow, and ultimately won’t win the war. Loopholes and false solutions can only serve to delay their inevitable demise, yet it’s clear from the text—which is strongly committed to the 1.5°C warming limit—that there’s not time to lose.”
“COP28 marks the beginning of the end of the fossil fuel era,” said Linda Kalcher, executive director of the EU’s Strategic Perspectives. “This outcome must be harnessed by governments and markets, but clearly signals the beginning of the end for coal, oil, and gas in the global economy and the massive growth of renewables.”
“Countries have agreed a path to address the gaps in global climate action: transition away from fossil fuels, deliver on global targets on adaptation, and take new steps to scale up finance for climate action, critically setting up a new loss and damage fund,” said Alex Scott, program lead at the E3G climate think tank. “There are gaps—especially on finance for adaptation—and loopholes—but the ultimate direction of travel is clear: the fossil fuel era is ending.”
Now, Scott added ,”the proof will be in the delivery—in countries’ next climate plans due by 2025, and in the transformation of the wider finance system to deliver the economic shifts needed. “
Observers pointed out there was no agreement on how the transition out of fossil fuels will be funded in the poorest, most vulnerable countries on the front lines of the climate emergency. Those factors, along with the ultimately weak language on fossil fuels, made COP28 a “fossil-fuelled failure,” declared the Center for International Economic Law.
“Countries at COP28 faced a choice between fossil fuels and life. And big polluters chose fossil fuels,” said Nikki Reisch, director of CIEL’s climate and energy program. “Despite the unstoppable momentum and unequivocal science behind the need for a clear signal on the phaseout of oil, gas, and coal—free of loopholes or limitations—the text failed to deliver one. This failure was 30 years in the making, borne of a process that allows a select few countries to hold progress hostage and the fossil fuel industry not just to sit at the table, but to play host. Survival cannot depend on lowest-common-denominator outcomes.”
“Wealthy countries like Canada and the United States—who have an overwhelming responsibility to phase out fossil fuels first and fastest—have failed the global community by refusing to provide the financial support needed from developing countries in order to transition their economies away from fossil fuels, adapt to the impacts of the climate crisis, and address the losses and damages being experienced,” said Julia Levin, associate director, national climate at Environmental Defence Canada. “Rebuilding trust will require wealthy countries to start paying up so that no one is left behind.”
“People on the front line of the climate crisis have little to celebrate from this disappointing COP,” said Chiara Liguori, senior climate change policy advisor at Oxfam International. “Rich countries with historical responsibilities for the climate crisis, like the UK, needed to do much more. No money was put on the table to help developing countries transition to renewable energies. And rich countries again reneged on their obligations to help people being hit by climate breakdown who are left facing more debt and worsening inequality.”
Tough conversations about filling in missing dollars for the new loss and damage fund, funding climate change adaptation, delivering a fair and equitable transition out of the fossil fuel economy, ending fossil fuel subsidies, and tackling structural inequities in international debt arrangements—all essential cornerstones of the fight against climate change—will continue in the lead-up to COP negotiations in Azerbaijan and Brazil in 2024 and 2025.